ABSTRACT
This paper deals with the analysis of the persistence in the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The degree of persistence is measured through fractional integration or I (d) techniques, using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2023. We first conducted the analysis with data ending in December 2019, that is, with data prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, we extended the sample, first up to December 2021 and finally to February 2023. Our results show that the findings of our series are highly persistent, with values of the differencing parameter about one or higher than one in the majority of cases. In fact, mean reversion is only observed in the case of Germany with pre-pandemic data. Generally, we observed an increase in the degree of persistence of the series as a consequence of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war, with the only exception being Spain, where we observe a reduction in the order of integration when including 2022–2023 data. © 2023 by the authors.
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the market persistence and mean reversion properties for corn, bioethanol and gasoline prices in the US biofuel industry, evaluating long memory effects with fractional integration techniques from January 1982 to May 2022 with USDA data. Empirical results show evidence of no mean reversion properties for the prices in the three series though some support of it is found when the differences of bioethanol and gasoline are taken with respect to corn. Thus, external shocks in the original series are expected to remain persistent and would require additional policy measures to recover the original trend. Furthermore, the impact of Covid on the time series has been analyzed by comparing the scenarios pre and post pandemic, finding evidence of no major changes in the integration orders in all the series under analysis. © 2023 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland
ABSTRACT
This paper uses fractional integration methods to examine persistence, trends and structural breaks in United States house prices, more specifically the monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index for census divisions, and the United States as a whole over the period from January 1991 to August 2022. The full sample estimates imply that the order of integration of the series is above one in all cases, and is particularly high for the aggregate series, implying high levels of persistence. However, when the possibility of structural breaks is taken into account, segmented trends are detected. The subsample estimates of the fractional differencing parameter tend to be lower, with mean reversion occurring in a number of cases. This means that shocks in the series are expected to be transitory in these subsamples, disappearing in the long run by themselves. In addition, the time trend coefficient is at its highest in the last subsample, which in most cases starts around May 2020 coincident with the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. The results provide clear evidence of differences between census divisions, which implies that appropriate housing policies should be designed at the local (rather than at the federal) level. © 2023, The Author(s).
ABSTRACT
There are many studies that have focussed on the different dimensions of employment in several industries during COVID-19. However, the impact of the pandemic on employment in the tourism industries has been underexplored. Moreover, we are not aware of any study that has considered the impact of the pandemic on employment in different sub-sectors within the tourism industries. This paper analyzes the effect of COVID-19 on employment in Australian tourism industries using fractional integration. Using quarterly data (2004-2021) and disaggregating data by sectors, we examine two samples, one ending in December 2019 and the other one in December 2021. The novelty of this study is the consideration of the effect of this pandemic on employment in different sub-sectors that constitute the tourism industry. Our results indicate that the current pandemic has not produced significant changes in the persistence of the series. The only significant changes take place for the retail trade industry that moves from mean reversion to lack of it, and the cafes and restaurants in the opposite direction. One of the implications of the results is that interventions before the pandemic, such as concerted marketing efforts, are useful to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on tourism related industries. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
ABSTRACT
This paper uses fractional integration to assess the impact of US policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on 10 US sectoral stock indices from 1 January 2020 to 11 June 2021. The results provide evidence of mean reversion in most cases and suggest that the Effective Federal Funds Rate and monetary and fiscal announcements are the most effective policy tools. © 2022 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
ABSTRACT
This study analyzes the level of tourism persistence in the North Macedonia through predictors of foreign arrivals and overnight stays for the time period of annual data from 1956 to 2020 and for monthly data from January 2010 to October 2021 by applying fractional integration techniques. The results show that for the annual data shocks are temporary by applying autocorrelation model. However, at the monthly data the shocks are expected to have permanent effects. The government should react further in trying to bring back the tourism figures as before the pandemic COVID-19. Copyright © 2022 The Authors.
ABSTRACT
This study analyzes the level of tourism persistence in the North Macedonia through predictors of foreign arrivals and overnight stays for the time period of annual data from 1956 to 2020 and for monthly data from January 2010 to October 2021 by applying fractional integration techniques. The results show that for the annual data shocks are temporary by applying autocorrelation model. However, at the monthly data the shocks are expected to have permanent effects. The government should react further in trying to bring back the tourism figures as before the pandemic COVID-19. Copyright (c) 2022 The Authors. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
ABSTRACT
This paper assesses the impact of US policy responses to the Covid-19 pandemic on various technology-related assets such as cryptocurrencies, financial technology, and artificial intelligence stocks using fractional integration techniques. More precisely, it analyzes the behavior of the percentage returns in the case of nine major coins (Bitcoin-BITC, Stella-STEL, Litecoin-LITE, Ethereum-ETHE, XRP (Ripple), Dash, Monero-MONE, NEM, Tether-TETH) and two technology-related stock market indices (the KBW NASDAQ Technology Index-KFTX, and the NASDAQ Artificial Intelligence index-AI) over the period 1 January 2020-5 March 2021. The results suggest that fiscal measures such as debt relief and fiscal policy announcements had positive effects on the series examined during the pandemic, when an increased mortality rate tended instead to drive them down;by contrast, monetary measures and announcements appear to have had very little impact and the Covid-19 containment measures none at all.
ABSTRACT
In this study, we examine the degree of persistence in tourism in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on it. The series investigated are foreign arrivals and overnight stays for the time period from January 2008 to December 2021. The methodology used is based on fractional integration. The results indicate that the impact of COVID-19 has been strong on the series, removing the significance of the time trend, increasing the level of persistence and reducing significantly the seasonality factor in both arrivals and overnight stay series. © 2022 Editura Universitatii din Oradea. All rights reserved.